Forecasting
Patient Journey Analysis and Forecast Validation
March 6, 20262.4K views
1
Objective
- Define patient opportunity and journey to validate existing Oncology Forecast.
2
Approach
- Use multiple sources and investigate thoroughly to triangulate and validate assumptions
- Study and analyze secondary literature search results, RWE, registry data and research papers to understand the flow and triangulate the findings
- Account for patients’ journey and progression on lines of therapy help to size the opportunity and also highlight key drivers
- Evaluate analyst reports, investor presentations, other syndicated reports to understand the business rules for sizing the later lines of treatment opportunities
3
Outcome
- Sources of potential addressable patients were identified using extensive research based on our expertise in oncology
- Built patient progression estimates using OS and PFS curves of various available therapies thus sizing the market correctly for greater impact
- Derived insights to help evaluate impact of new product launches especially with breakthrough therapies
- Used publicly available information to size 2L patients from 1L based on progression rate prior to the launch of novel therapies
4
Client Benefits
- To have efficient and dynamic forecast models that account for all available patient opportunities
- Have a validated addressable pool with suggestions on how to increase this pool
- Increased precision in patient sizing by using OS-PFS progression curves. This helped create opportunities with later lines of therapy and increased sensitivity to impacts of competition